Stopping Global Warming – Only $45 Trillion
June 9, 2008
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A recent report issued by the International Energy Agency, based in Paris, has concluded it would take an investment of $45 trillion by 2050 to reduce the threat of global warming.
First, a bit of a primer. Previous studies have shown that with current economic trends, emissions of greenhouse would increase by over 100% by mid-century if no action is taken. This would lead to an increase in global temperatures of between 3.6 degrees and 4.2 degrees. Near the top of that range is where scientists expect global warming to wreak hazardous effects on the world.
So the good news is that this disastrous scenario can be stopped. The bad news is the price tag of $45 billion, which would equate to a reduction in carbon emissions of about 50%. And to make matters worse, as poorer countries continue to develop economically, they would be responsible for an increasing share of global emissions, and thus would need to make an increasing share of this large investment.
But not is all grim as it seems. There is still a realistic chance that the world can reduce its carbon footprint enough by 2050. While the total cost is quite high, when taken as a percentage of worldwide GDP, only 1.1%, it seems entirely manageable. As well, there are already methods for rich countries to help poorer develop without increasing their carbon footprint, which will help spread the investment to those who can better afford it.
The report recommended several actions that would have to be taken to meet the goal of cutting the carbon footprint by half:
- Building 32 new nuclear plants a year
- Fitting 35 coal plants and 20 gas-powered plants with carbon capture and storage equipment each year
- Install 17000 new wind turbines each year
- Reduce carbon intensity (amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy) in transportation 8-fold
These changes are all possible and we already have much of the technology required to do it, although carbon capture and storage has yet to be done on a wide scale. As green technology improves some of these measures will become even easier. The biggest missing ingredient remains the political will, which no new technology will be able to solve.
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